Tuesday 20 January 2009


As I have blogged before, the sums of money being thrown around by governments and reported in the media are surreal. I always try and put them in perspective.
I watched Planet in Peril on CNN the other night and heard stated that since 1970 there have been 6000 oil leaks in Nigeria, causing a mess in total 10 times the size of the Exon Valdez accident, and that 300 Billion have been wasted or stolen in that time.
Measure this against the 800 Billion bailout package - It would take 80 years of environmental damage and corruption in one of the worlds filthiest, most corrupt countries to equals the financial damage done by the credit mess .

This is one real measure of the worth of such a vast, inconcievable, sum of money.

Another can be seen by comparing the resistance to pushing the 15B auto bailout through, against the relative ease of blowing 800B into the money hole, we see the emperor standing naked. The 800B is monoploy money, shifted from the government to the fed to the banks and back to the fed. Once that money gets free and into pockets it gets real and the inflaton will start.

There are no international controls any more. The average voter does not distinguish between Millions and Billions. Politicians better spend it while it is still worth something.

Long term, the holders of US debt and foriegn currency reserves will be left with nothing. Savers in the US, a virtually non existant class, will loose their savings, but this can be rectified with extrordinary compensation for domestic savers.

But at the end of the day, China ,the primary lender, got a good 20 year run and will be amongst the first to benefit once the dust settles and the world, US included, starts consuming again - probably using a new global currency to do business.